COVID-19: “Based on our mathematical model and artificial intelligence techniques we can presume infections down to zero by 7 May and peak already reached on 27 March. Italy a positive model for the whole world”.

The conclusions of a study commissioned by the Stanleybet Group board to the Department of Robotics of the Liverpool company, in relation to the presumed trend of the Covid-19 epidemic in the coming weeks, are now known and have been communicated to all Stanley branches in Europe. ‘Robotics’ is the same department that is creating the Alicia humanoid robot and that uses cutting-edge techniques for the animation of virtual products. A mathematical model interpreted the pandemic as if it were carried by a swarm of hostile robots. Every single virus was considered as if it were a small robot ('nano robot') and its effects were analysed, in relation to its movements, with the same logistical forecasting techniques connected to the simultaneous movement of millions of software drones with a very low level of cooperation (swarms). It is a technique developed for the first time in the world at Magellan Robotech for specialized software capable of simulating movements of virtual entities, but with a high level of cooperation. A specific mathematical model made it possible to overcome the difficulty in identifying the correct level of swarm cooperation in the case of application to the pandemic.

Data from the Italian Civil Protection and Health Authorities of the various countries, as well as data from the World Health Organisation, have been included in the model, seasonally adjusted with econometric techniques similar to those used to stabilise the data used in the forecast models of the economic research institutes.

Moreover, forecasts about the various countries’ citizens behaviours have been added on, in relation to their level of obedience to the prescriptions of the authority. Single forecasting models were created for China and for the eight countries where the Stanleybet Group is present with its activities: England, Denmark, Belgium, Italy, Romania, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus. China, having now very stabilised data, has been used as a 'patient' of control and a point of reference, to assign different ‘levels of obedience' to other authorities that are numerically calibrated on the Chinese maximum.

Therefore, China has been assigned the '100' level of obedience and, gradually, lower levels to the other countries, according to a ranking that will not be made public. However, it must be said that Italy, which always finds its great strength in difficult times, has been ranked third with a 'high' level of obedience: despite the tragedy, it is an absolute example of abnegation from public and private medical personnel, as well as of exemplary behaviour from the citizens, now cited all over the world.

In order to assess the loss from the forced closure of all its points in the eight countries in which the Stanleybet Group operates, the board members asked to estimate two fundamental parameters for each of these countries: 1) the peak of the pandemic and 2) the moment in which the number of daily infections would decrease to 0 (zero) units. Given that peak means the moment when the infection curve changes from an exponential increase (concavity pointing upwards) to a logarithmic increase (concavity pointing downwards), and that the number of infections at zero is the moment in which the curve reaches its maximum in terms of infected subjects, the model has provided the abovementioned two parameters for each country, with predictable different outcomes from one country to another. According to the Magellan’s model, Italy already reached its peak 4 days ago, on March 27th; after that date, the number of new infected has started to decrease and it will continue its reduction with an increasing logarithmic trend, reaching its minimum (zero infections) on 7 May 2020. The margin of error should be considered in 4 days in advance or further. The success percentage for the model is 88%. According to Magellan Robotech, therefore, the number of new infections could be zero at any time between 3 and 11 May, but the most likely date, highly dependent on the assumptions underlying the model, is the date of 7 May. Starting from that date on, it will be necessary that everyone will keep the utmost prudence in their behaviours for at least another 14 days.

The green light from the Italian government to a resumption for all the activities across Italy can, therefore, be estimated for the last week of May.

Stanleybet currently runs only their online activities; retail shops around Europe are closed, awaiting further instructions from the respective local authorities. The Stanleybet Group invites all their agents and shop owners across Europe to stay at home and to observe with the utmost scruple and attention all the provisions from the authorities. Stanley asked all its employees and associates to do the same, providing their services via smart working. Absolute obedience to authorities’ prescriptions will bring us to the end of the pandemic as soon as possible.

Giovanni Garrisi, Stanleybet Group CEO, who created the mathematical model used by Magellan, raised his warning via telephone from his home in Malta: “I hope that the forecasts of our research department are correct, at least substantially. There is however a risk. In fact, our model shows that the infections’ trend in the coming days will collapse with an exponential decrease rate. In a nutshell, we will see the newly infected people decrease every day with surprising rapidity, but then the curve will settle in a nerve-wracking swing, day by day, until it reaches zero infections in early May. It is possible, therefore, that a sense of euphoria will be generated in the coming days, between 7 and 15 April, as if the problem would be overcome. But I would advise paying attention, because it is not! A slowdown in compliance with the recommendations from the authorities could generate a new spread of the pandemic. We all must stay at home above and beyond the day declared as ‘zero infections’ day’. Whether we all will be rigorous to the authorities’ prescriptions, the whole gaming industry should start thinking that the reopening will not be beyond the end of May".